(Nairobi)
ANALYSIS
December 7, 2004
Posted to the web December 7,
2004
Pauline Wangui
Nairobi
Following the article on
Voice Over Internet Protocol a month ago, I have received many
queries on how economically viable VoIP is. Today I highlight
the economics of VoIP.
Introduction of VoIP is
the beginning of another era in telecommunications services,
as it is the enabling technology to potentially switch away
some local telephony customers from the telecom carriers.
Several VoIP services will be launched locally soon offering
free on-net calls within their closed user groups and extras
including voicemail, conferencing and termination services to
the public switched-telephony network (PSTN).
These all have minimal
network infrastructure, relying on 'peer-to-peer' typologies
to support the services. The private VoIP applications
challenge the traditional voice service providers, both fixed
and mobile, to adopt new business models if they are to
survive.
New versus old
Assuming the existence
of effective VoIP networks and the correct future vision of
convergent data-voice services, it is evident that VoIP is
relevant and will actually work.
The existing PSTN
network is depreciated, though its operational life can be
prolonged. However, value-added extensions to the traditional
circuit-based voice product are costly and take a long time to
develop. The OPEX (operating expenditure) associated with PSTN
switches will only increase as time goes on.
VoIP is becoming
recognised as a proven technology on corporate LANs and WLANs.
The growth of broadband in the local loop emerges as a key
enabler, which both drives the associated IP infrastructure
deployment and directly reduces (OPEX) relating to the copper
local loop.
This then prepares the
ground for VoIP to be truly cost-effective, as the phasing out
of the PSTN would lead to a more manageable, converged
network. VoIP is truly timely and cost effective with demand
growing especially for call-centre applications.
Fixed-line revenues are
falling as a result of regulation and mobile cannibalisation.
Operators hope that an integrated IP platform might support
voice services, such as 'click-to-call' from the computer,
with the potential to generate new revenue streams.
Also, dynamic routeing
with VoIP offers the possibility to have a single number that
connects to your current call location, be it at home, in the
office, or on the move. With its potential for value-added,
integrated data and voice services, VoIP offers the
opportunity of incremental revenue.
Residential broadband
could enable the introduction of fixed handsets with features
that are characteristic of mobile systems, or even a roaming
'personal handset' configuration that could include among
other features something like a portable address book.
A tightly regulated and
highly competitive voice market means that revenue and margin
erosion are the very real threat.
New services will
emerge, such as click-to-call and secure business voice
communication, which may increase ARPU or at least protect
fixed-line voice revenues as the traditional voice products
decline in value.
A significant proportion
of most incumbents' customers and revenues come from rural
areas. Remote areas require local intelligent network of
digital local exchanges to be distributed over a very large
number of sites. VoIP offers a greatly simplified switching
architecture. With the aid of a few core soft switches and
related servers; it would best be used to reach the last mile.
Deregulation of the
public network has completely changed the service provider
landscape. Key technologies are making major strides, these
are Internet Protocol (IP) telephony, wireless Internet and
speech-driven user interfaces.
New and essentially free
services Ð like Internet voice and unified messaging Ð are
quickly reaching the marketplace. Service providers will face
a different competitive environment much more sophisticated
than before.
Basic are the same
The basics are still the
same: how to build revenue by offering services that attract
new customers and how to keep revenue by retaining customers
while maximising profits. They've got to face the challenges
and still be flexible enough to change at Internet
speed-keeping things simple and convenient for customers.
With skype.com VoIP
offerings receiving major publicity in the world, it is
evident that VoIP is relevant. It is expected that OPEX costs
will rise over time for traditional networks, in contrast to
those for VoIP, which are expected to fall as global economies
of scale are realised.
Whether you are a
telecommunications start-up or an incumbent giant, your
winning options in VoIP will largely depend on the product you
offer, its price point, and the target market you need to
persuade rapidly.
The author is a
telecom strategy analyst